Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2025 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 48th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 3, 2025.
[MACKERRAS PENDULUM HOME] [ENTIRE HOUSE PENDULUM]
So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum for the 2025 election?
| Incumbent Government Australian Labor Party (78 Seats) |
Opposition The Coalition (57 Seats) |
|||||
| Division Name | Where? | % to flip | % to flip | Where? | Division Name | |
| Gilmore | NSW |
0.2% | 0.02% | VIC |
Deakin | |
| Menzies (notional) (a) | VIC |
0.4% | 0.04% | NSW |
Bennelong (notional)(a) | |
| Lyons | TAS |
0.9% | 0.5% |
SA |
Sturt | |
| Lingiari | NT |
1.7% | 0.9% | WA |
Moore (b) | |
| Robertson |
NSW |
2.2% | 1.2% |
WA |
Canning | |
| Paterson |
NSW |
2.6% | 1.4% | TAS |
Bass | |
| Tangney |
WA |
2.8% | 1.4% | VIC |
Casey | |
| Boothby |
SA |
3.3% | 1.7% | QLD |
Dickson | |
| Chisholm |
VIC |
3.3% | 2.4% vs. IND |
NSW |
Cowper | |
| Bullwinkel (notional) |
WA |
3.3% | 2.5% vs. IND |
NSW |
Bradfield |
|
| Aston |
VIC |
3.6% | 2.6% | NSW |
Banks | |
| Paramatta |
NSW |
3.7% | 2.9% |
VIC |
Monash (b) | |
| McEwen |
VIC |
3.8% | 3.1% |
QLD |
Longman | |
| Wills |
VIC |
4.6% vs. GRN |
3.4% | QLD |
Bonner | |
| Hunter |
NSW |
4.8% | 3.4% | QLD |
Leichhardt |
|
| Reid |
NSW |
5.2% | 3.4% vs. IND |
VIC |
Nicholls | |
| Blair |
QLD |
5.2% | 3.5% | NSW |
Hughes | |
| Bruce |
VIC |
5.3% | 3.8% | QLD |
Flynn | |
| Werriwa |
NSW |
5.3% | 3.8% vs. IND |
VIC |
Wannon | |
| Shortland |
NSW |
6.0% |
4.2% | WA |
Forrest | |
| Eden Monaro |
NSW |
6.1% | 4.2% | QLD |
Forde | |
| Macquarie |
NSW |
6.3% | 4.4% | QLD |
Petrie |
|
| Dobell |
NSW |
6.6% | 4.7% | WA |
Durrack | |
| Dunkley |
VIC |
6.8% |
5.5% | QLD |
Bowman | |
| Holt |
VIC |
7.1% | 6.1% | NSW |
Lindsay | |
| Hawke |
VIC |
7.6% | 6.2% | VIC |
Flinders | |
| Cooper |
VIC |
7.8% | 6.6% | QLD |
Capricornia | |
| Corangamite | VIC |
7.8% | 6.7% | WA |
O'Connor | |
| Greenway |
NSW |
7.9% | 6.9% | NSW |
Hume | |
| Richmond |
NSW |
8.2% | 6.9% vs. IND |
QLD |
Groom | |
| Whitlam |
VIC |
8.3% | 7.6% | NSW |
Berowra |
|
| Solomon |
NT |
8.4% | 8.0% | TAS |
Braddon | |
| Pearce |
WA |
8.8% | 8.4% | VIC |
La Trobe |
|
| Hindmarsh | SA |
8.9% | 8.7% | QLD |
Fisher | |
| Rankin |
QLD |
9.1% | 9.0% | QLD |
Fairfax | |
| Moreton |
QLD |
9.1% | 9.3% | QLD |
McPherson | |
| Swan |
WA |
9.4% | 9.7% | NSW |
Riverina | |
| Issacs |
VIC |
9.5% | 9.7% | NSW |
Calare(b) | |
| Macarthur | NSW |
9.8% | 10.1% | SA |
Grey | |
| Cowan | WA |
9.9% | 10.1% | QLD |
Hinkler | |
| Gorton |
VIC |
10.0% | 10.4% | QLD |
Dawson | |
| Hasluck | WA |
10.0% | 10.5% | NSW |
Mitchell | |
| McMahon |
NSW |
10.5% | 10.6% | QLD |
Fadden |
|
| Lilley | QLD |
10.5% | 10.7% | NSW |
Page |
|
| Makin | SA |
10.8% | 10.9% | QLD |
Wright | |
| Bendigo | VIC |
11.2% | 11.2% | QLD |
Moncrieff | |
| Gellibrand | VIC |
11.2% | 11.3% | QLD |
Wide Bay |
|
| Hotham | VIC |
11.6% | 11.6% | NSW |
Cook | |
| Oxley | QLD |
11.6% | 11.8% | QLD |
Herbert | |
| Adelaide | SA |
11.9% | 13.8% | NSW |
Lyne | |
| Barton | NSW |
12.0% | 15.2% | NSW |
New England |
|
| Macnamara | VIC |
12.2% | 16.3% | NSW |
Farrer | |
| Jagajaga | VIC |
12.2% | 16.6% | SA |
Barker | |
| Canberra | ACT |
12.2% vs. GRN |
18.2% | NSW |
Parkes | |
| Calwell | VIC |
12.4% | 19.0% | VIC |
Mallee | |
| Corio | VIC |
12.5% | 20.6% | VIC |
Gippsland | |
| Lalor | VIC |
12.8% | 22.1% | QLD |
Maranoa | |
| Spence | SA |
12.9% | CROSSBENCH Seats |
|||
| Bean | ACT |
12.9% | 1.4% vs. ALP |
NSW |
Fowler (IND) |
|
| Ballarat | VIC |
13.0% | 1.3% vs COA |
WA |
Curtin (IND) |
|
| Maribyrnong | VIC |
13.0% | 2.2% vs. COA |
VIC |
Kooyong (IND) |
|
| Blaxland |
VIC |
13.0% | 2.6% vs. COA |
QLD |
Ryan (GRN) |
|
| Burt | WA |
13.3% | 3.3% vs. COA |
VIC |
Goldstein (IND) |
|
| Kingsford Smith |
NSW |
13.3% | 3.3% vs. COA |
NSW |
Mackellar (IND) |
|
| Chifley | NSW |
13.6% | 3.7% vs. COA |
QLD |
Brisbane (GRN) |
|
| Franklin | TAS |
13.7% | 6.5% vs. ALP | VIC | Melbourne (GRN) | |
| Perth | WA |
14.4% | 6.8% vs. COA | NSW | Wentworth (IND) | |
| Cunningham |
NSW |
15.1% | 8.9% vs. COA | VIC | Indi (IND) | |
| Watson | NSW |
15.2% | 9.4% vs. COA | NSW | Warringah (IND) | |
| Scullin | VIC |
15.4% | 10.5% vs. COA | QLD | Griffith (GRN) | |
| Fenner | ACT |
15.7% |
12.3% vs. COA | SA | Mayo (CA) | |
| Kingston | SA |
16.4% | 13.1% vs. COA | QLD | Kennedy (KAP) | |
| Sydney | NSW |
16.5% vs. GRN |
20.8% vs. ALP | TAS | Clark (IND) | |
| Fraser |
VIC |
16.6% |
||||
| Fremantle |
WA |
16.9% |
||||
| Brand |
WA |
17.1% |
||||
| Grayndler |
NSW |
17.3% vs. GRN |
||||
| Newcastle |
NSW |
17.9% |
||||
Notes:
(a) Menzies and Bennelong are held by the Coalition and ALP respectively, however redistribution have made these seats notionally ALP and Coalition respectively on paper. These seats are listed in the columns based on their redistribution margin.
(b) In the divisions of Moore, Monash and Calare, the incumbent MP is running again as an independent. Their seats are not listed in the crossbench, but with the Coalition as they were last elected as such.
(a) Menzies and Bennelong are held by the Coalition and ALP respectively, however redistribution have made these seats notionally ALP and Coalition respectively on paper. These seats are listed in the columns based on their redistribution margin.
(b) In the divisions of Moore, Monash and Calare, the incumbent MP is running again as an independent. Their seats are not listed in the crossbench, but with the Coalition as they were last elected as such.
