Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2025 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 48th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 3, 2025.
So, how did we get to this election? In 2022, voters called time on the Coalition government they first elected in 2013. It was clear early on during election night that the Coalition was soundly beaten, but it took a couple of days for Labor to win a majority government... just. Anthony Albanese became the 31st Prime Minister of Australia, and Scott Morrison would leave the role of leader of the Liberal Party of Australia, to be replaced by Queenslander Peter Dutton.
Early on in the polls, "Albo" as he is affectionately known, enjoyed a considerable lead in the polls, and began to try to organize a constitutional referendum to enshrine a Voice to Parliament for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander people of Australia. While the Voice enjoyed initial support that indicated it would pass, the referendum ultimately failed by a considerable margin, obtaining neither a majority of overall votes or a majority of the six Australian states. Albo and Labor would also face steep critiques on the cost of living and inflation in Australia. Eventually, the lead shriveled to nothing, and the Coalition began to enjoy being in competition again, with some polling leads.
Then November of 2024 happened. Donald Trump was elected to a second non-consecutive term as President of the United States, and the various proclivities of political pyromania and pyrotechnics were not long after on full display. The Coalition continued to enjoy slight leads until 2025, when Labor began to pull into various polling ties, then small leads again. As the election contest unfolded, the oppositionCoalition has more than once been caught on the wrong foot, whereas the Labor government (not without gaffes) has largely ran a fairly steady campaign.
As May 3 approaches, Labor is likely in better position than the Coalition to win government, for a couple of reasons: One is that Australia rarely ejects governments after one term. In fact, starting in 2000, just four governments have been ejected from power after a single term, and none of them were at the federal level (in case you're keeping track, it's the Bailieu/Napthine government in Victoria in 2014, the Newman government in Queensland in 2015, the Mills/Giles government in the Northern Territory in 2016 and the Stephen Marshall government in South Australia in 2022). Two, it's likely that many of the "teal" independents will hang on for re-election in noteworthy Coalition seats, which would make it harder for the Coalition to get to 76 seats versus Labor. Finally, Labor is polling decently enough that they'll either take another majority government or be really close to 76 seats, making forming government with Labor likely the only feasible outcome.
