KJ.org :: AUSTRALIA 2025:: House Predictions

Here, you will find my prediction for the House of Represenatives elections in 2025 for Australia. Before I get into the predictions, here's how I set up the predictions:

First, I break down the analysis state-by-state. Rather than a huge pendulum chart of 150 seats, I break this down into a smaller number of seats per state. Granted, states like New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria are still a little unwieldy, it's easier to follow.

Second, in the past I attempted to predict a swing range and only covered the seats in that range, writing the other seats as automatically safe. For 2019, I changed this approach: I still predict a swing, but I include all seats in the table.

Finally, I break it all down at the end with how many seats each party has.

So let's begin!


State Briefing: Despite losing a seat (North Sydney) in redistribution, the 46 seats that New South Wales (NSW) plus the state's perennial swing status goes a long way into determining the government of the day at each election. With fairly few exceptions, the party that wins the most seats in NSW wins government. However, the result of several independents elected in 2022 makes for an interesting quirk in the calculations for NSW. However, it is likely that given the polls swinging back into Albo's favor, the ALP should regain Bennelong from the Coalition (notionally) and maybe Fowler from the independent. The Coalition however, will likely struggle to win back any seats from the teal independents.
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Barton Blaxland Chifley Cunningham Dobell Eden-Monaro Gilmore Grayndler Greenway Hunter Kingsford Smith Macarthur Macquarie McMahon Newcastle Paramatta Paterson Reid Richmond Robertson Shortland Sydney Watson Werriwa Whitlam	Bennelong (notional) Fowler	Mackellar (IND) Warringah (IND) Wentworth (IND)	None	None	Banks Berowra Bradfield Calare Cook Cowper Farrer Hume Hughes Lindsay Lyne Mitchell New England Page Parkes Riverina
Swing: ~0.5 to ALP		ALP: 27 (+1), Independent: 3(0), Coalition: 16 (-1) Note: Calare is held by a Independent elected orignally as a member of the Coalition, the seat is projected to return to form. Bennelong is notionally held by the Coalition but should be picked back up by the ALP, hence a gain.


State Briefing: Victoria also lost a seat in the redistribution, seeing the seat of Higgins abolished. In recent elections, Victoria is often one of the ALP's strongest states, but lagging polls at the state level regarding the state government has put pressure on Albo and Labor. However, it appears voters are willing to spare Albo and federal Labor for the most part, and the Liberals at best would regain the notional Menzies from Labor (which is basically regaining a seat they have)
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Aston Ballarat Bendigo Bruce Calwell Chisholm Cooper Corangamite Corio Dunkley Fraser Gellibrand Gorton Hawke Holt Hotham Issacs Jagajaga Lalor Macnamara Maribyrnong McEwen Scullin Wills	None	Goldstein (IND) Indi (IND) Kooyong (IND) Melbourne (GRN)	None	Menzies (notional)	Casey Deakin Flinders Gippsland La Trobe Mallee Monash Nicholls Wannon
Swing: ~1.0 to Coalition		ALP: 24 (-1), Independents: 4 (0), Greens: 1 (0), Coalition: 10 (+1) Note: Monash is held by an independent that was initially elected as a member of the Coalition. The seat is expected to return to form. Menzies is a seat that is notionally Labor but really held by the Coalition, but is treated as a gain.