New South Wales 2019 :: KortJackson.org

Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:

Hold Codes	Gain Codes	Explanation
ALP-Hold	ALP GAIN	The Labor Party has held/gained this seat.
COA-Hold	COA GAIN	The Coalition has held/gained this seat
GRN-Hold	GRN GAIN	The Greens has held/gained this seat
IND-Hold	IND GAIN	An Independent has held/gained the seat
3P-Hold	3P GAIN	A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary)

Incumbent Government THE COALITION PREDICTION: Hung Parliament RESULT: Government Returned, Majority +2			Opposition NSW LABOR PREDICTION: Hung Parliament RESULT: OPPOSITION DEFEATED
Division Name	% to flip	Predict	Predict	% to Flip	Division Name
East Hills	0.4%	GAIN	HOLD	0.2%	Gosford
Upper Hunter	2.2%	GAIN	HOLD	0.4%	The Entrance
Monaro	2.5%	GAIN	HOLD	1.8%	Strathfield
Lismore	2.9% (vs. GRN)	GAIN	HOLD	2.1%	Granville
Coogee	2.9%	GAIN	HOLD	3.4%	Prospect
Tweed	3.2%	GAIN	HOLD	4.7%	Port Stephens
Penrith	6.2%	GAIN	HOLD	4.8%	Rockdale
Goulburn	6.6%	GAIN	HOLD	5.9%	Auburn
Oatley	6.6%	HOLD	HOLD	6.9%	Kogarah
Holsworthy	6.7%	HOLD	HOLD	7.3%	Campbelltown
Heathcote	7.6%	GAIN	HOLD	7.4%	Newcastle
Bega	8.2%	HOLD	HOLD	8.0% (vs. IND)	Wollongong
Kiama	8.7%	HOLD	HOLD	8.1%	Blue Mountains
Seven Hills	8.7%	HOLD	HOLD	8.1%	Macquarie Fields
Myall Lakes	8.7%	HOLD	HOLD	8.7%	Wyong
Terrigal	9.0%	HOLD	HOLD	8.8%	Londonderry
South Coast	9.6%	HOLD	HOLD	10.5% (vs. GRN)	Summer Hill
Mulgoa	9.7%	HOLD	HOLD	10.8%	Maroubra
Clarence	9.7%	HOLD	HOLD	12.9%	Charlestown
Tamworth	10.0% (vs. IND)	HOLD	HOLD	13.0%	Swansea
Oxley	10.9%	HOLD	HOLD	13.2%	Blacktown
Ryde	11.5%	HOLD	HOLD	13.8%	Maitland
Riverstone	12.2%	HOLD	HOLD	14.0%	Bankstown
Paramatta	12.9%	HOLD	HOLD	14.1%	Heffron
Barwon (SFF)	12.9%	HOLD	HOLD	15.4%	Mount Druitt
Miranda	13.0%	HOLD	HOLD	15.7%	Canterbury
Albury	13.2%	HOLD	HOLD	17.0%	Shellharbour
Coffs Harbour	14.3%	HOLD	HOLD	17.2%	Cabramatta
Bathurst	15.8%	HOLD	HOLD	17.4%	Keira
Epping	16.2%	HOLD	HOLD	17.8%	Fairfield
Wollondilly	17.3%	HOLD	HOLD	20.8%	Wallsend
Hawkesbury	17.8%	HOLD	HOLD	20.9%	Liverpool
Lane Cove	17.8%	HOLD	HOLD	21.6%	Lakemba
Camden	18.3%	HOLD	HOLD	22.0%	Cessnock
Drummoyne	18.8%	HOLD		CROSSBENCH (7 seats)
Hornsby	18.9%	HOLD	GAIN	0.1% (vs. NAT)	Orange (SFF)
Port Macquarie	19.0%	HOLD	HOLD	3.1% (vs. NAT)	Ballina (GRN)
Cootamundra	20.4%	HOLD	HOLD	4.7% (vs. ALP)	Balmain (GRN)
Dubbo	20.4%	HOLD	HOLD	8.1% (vs. LIB)	Sydney (IND)
Cronulla	20.9%	HOLD	HOLD	9.3% (vs. ALP)	Newtown (GRN)
North Shore	21.2% (vs. GRN)	GAIN	HOLD	9.6% (vs. LIB)	Wagga Wagga (IND)
Baulkham Hills	21.8%	HOLD	HOLD	10.7% (vs. ALP)	Lake Macquarie (IND)
Murray (SFF)	22.7% (vs. IND)	HOLD
Vaucluse	22.9% (vs. GRN)	HOLD
Ku-ring-gai	23.0%	HOLD
Willoughby	24.4% (vs. GRN)	HOLD
Manly	24.5% (vs. GRN)	HOLD
Wakehurst	25.2%	HOLD
Pittwater	25.7% (vs. GRN)	HOLD
Northern Tablelands	27.1%	HOLD
Davidson	28.8% (vs. GRN)	HOLD
Castle Hill	29.4%	HOLD

PREDICTION RESULT: (82/93 or 88.17%)

Synopsis: What was expected to be a rather complex election result that would be a minority government did not appear to manifest on election day, although the Coalition are still a single seat away from an outright majority (but lead in two of the three seats still outstanding, so it is likely the Berejiklian government has been returned). Labor looked set to take a few more seats from the Coalition but Michael Daley's last minute comments and blunders cost them some of their swing in Sydney seats, key to winning the state, though the blunders weren't severe enough to cost them any of the 34 they started out with. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party did remarkably well, joining the Greens with three seats each (the SFF kept Orange and gained two more, the Greens held their three). Independents also had a good night, with each of the independents winning re-election easily (and most if not all enjoyed swings to them, making their seats safer). And while I didn't bother with the Legislative Council, looks like ol' Mark Latham is back, this time as a One Nation politician. Overall, voter anger at the federal Coalition didn't seem to harm Gladys Berejiklian or her Coalition state team, and so they get a rare third term in New South Wales.