Before we begin, what is the Mackerras Pendulum?
The Mackerras pendulum is named after political analyst and psephologist (someone who studies elections and electoral results) Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is a table organizing the seats held by each party from the thinnest of electoral margins at the top to the seats with the largest margins of victory held being at the bottom of the list. The pendulum is handy to show that if a uniform swing of a certain % were to happen for one party or the other, that many seats may flip to the other party as a result. If a result is not between Labor vs. Coalition, the party of which the second place finisher belongs to is indicated in the pendulum. However: swings in Australian politics are hardly uniform, therefore there may be "safer seats" that somehow flip from one party to another and "marginal seats" that are expected to flip but hold for the incumbent party holding the seat. "Crossbench" seats (seats not held by either the Government nor the Opposition) are listed after the parties and seperately ranked from most marginal to most safe.
So, what is the current Mackerras pendulum and what is your prediction?
The Mackerras pendulum is named after political analyst and psephologist (someone who studies elections and electoral results) Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is a table organizing the seats held by each party from the thinnest of electoral margins at the top to the seats with the largest margins of victory held being at the bottom of the list. The pendulum is handy to show that if a uniform swing of a certain % were to happen for one party or the other, that many seats may flip to the other party as a result. If a result is not between Labor vs. Coalition, the party of which the second place finisher belongs to is indicated in the pendulum. However: swings in Australian politics are hardly uniform, therefore there may be "safer seats" that somehow flip from one party to another and "marginal seats" that are expected to flip but hold for the incumbent party holding the seat. "Crossbench" seats (seats not held by either the Government nor the Opposition) are listed after the parties and seperately ranked from most marginal to most safe.
So, what is the current Mackerras pendulum and what is your prediction?
| Hold Codes | Gain Codes | Explanation |
| ALP-Hold | ALP GAIN | The Labor Party has held/gained this seat. |
| COA-Hold | COA GAIN | The Coalition has held/gained this seat |
| GRN-Hold | GRN GAIN | The Greens has held/gained this seat |
| IND-Hold | IND GAIN | An Independent has held/gained the seat |
| 3P-Hold | 3P GAIN | A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary) |
| Incumbent Government (52 seats at election) THE COALITION (-9 net loss to 43) PREDICTION: Hung Parliament Formation Prediction: Defeated |
Opposition (34 seats at election) NSW Labor (+9 net gain to 43) PREDICTION: Hung Parliament Formation Prediction: Minority Government |
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| Division Name | % to flip | Predict | Predict | % to Flip | Division Name | |
| East Hills | 0.4% | GAIN | HOLD | 0.2% | Gosford (b) | |
| Upper Hunter | 2.2% | GAIN | HOLD | 0.4% | The Entrance | |
| Monaro | 2.5% | GAIN | HOLD | 1.8% | Strathfield | |
| Lismore | 2.9% (vs. GRN) | GAIN | HOLD | 2.1% | Granville | |
| Coogee | 2.9% | GAIN | HOLD | 3.4% | Prospect | |
| Tweed | 3.2% | GAIN | HOLD | 4.7% | Port Stephens | |
| Penrith | 6.2% | GAIN | HOLD | 4.8% | Rockdale | |
| Goulburn | 6.6% | GAIN | HOLD | 5.9% | Auburn | |
| Oatley | 6.6% | HOLD | HOLD | 6.9% | Kogarah | |
| Holsworthy | 6.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 7.3% | Campbelltown | |
| Heathcote | 7.6% | GAIN | HOLD | 7.4% | Newcastle | |
| Bega | 8.2% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.0% (vs. IND) | Wollongong | |
| Kiama | 8.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.1% | Blue Mountains | |
| Seven Hills | 8.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.1% | Macquarie Fields | |
| Myall Lakes | 8.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.7% | Wyong | |
| Terrigal | 9.0% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.8% | Londonderry | |
| South Coast | 9.6% | HOLD | HOLD | 10.5% (vs. GRN) | Summer Hill | |
| Mulgoa | 9.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 10.8% | Maroubra | |
| Clarence | 9.7% | HOLD | HOLD | 12.9% | Charlestown | |
| Tamworth | 10.0% (vs. IND) | HOLD | HOLD | 13.0% | Swansea | |
| Oxley | 10.9% | HOLD | HOLD | 13.2% | Blacktown | |
| Ryde | 11.5% | HOLD | HOLD | 13.8% | Maitland | |
| Riverstone | 12.2% | HOLD | HOLD | 14.0% | Bankstown | |
| Paramatta | 12.9% | HOLD | HOLD | 14.1% | Heffron | |
| Barwon | 12.9% | HOLD | HOLD | 15.4% | Mount Druitt | |
| Miranda | 13.0% | HOLD | HOLD | 15.7% | Canterbury | |
| Albury | 13.2% | HOLD | HOLD | 17.0% | Shellharbour | |
| Coffs Harbour | 14.3% | HOLD | HOLD | 17.2% | Cabramatta | |
| Bathurst | 15.8% | HOLD | HOLD | 17.4% | Keira | |
| Epping | 16.2% | HOLD | HOLD | 17.8% | Fairfield | |
| Wollondilly (a) | 17.3% | HOLD | HOLD | 20.8% | Wallsend | |
| Hawkesbury | 17.8% | HOLD | HOLD | 20.9% | Liverpool | |
| Lane Cove | 17.8% | HOLD | HOLD | 21.6% | Lakemba | |
| Camden | 18.3% | HOLD | HOLD | 22.0% | Cessnock | |
| Drummoyne | 18.8% | HOLD | CROSSBENCH (7 seats) |
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| Hornsby | 18.9% | HOLD | GAIN | 0.1% (vs. NAT) |
Orange (SFF) (e) |
|
| Port Macquarie | 19.0% | HOLD | HOLD | 3.1% (vs. NAT) |
Ballina (GRN) |
|
| Cootamundra | 20.4% | HOLD | HOLD | 4.7% (vs. ALP) |
Balmain (GRN) |
|
| Dubbo | 20.4% | HOLD | HOLD | 8.1% (vs. LIB) |
Sydney (IND) | |
| Cronulla | 20.9% | HOLD | HOLD | 9.3% (vs. ALP) | Newtown (GRN) | |
| North Shore (c) | 21.2% (vs. GRN) | GAIN | HOLD | 9.6% (vs. LIB) | Wagga Wagga (IND) (f) | |
| Baulkham Hills | 21.8% | HOLD | HOLD | 10.7% (vs. ALP) | Lake Macquarie (IND) | |
| Murray (d) | 22.7% (vs. IND) | HOLD | ||||
| Vaucluse | 22.9% (vs. GRN) | HOLD | ||||
| Ku-ring-gai | 23.0% | HOLD | ||||
| Willoughby | 24.4% (vs. GRN) | HOLD | ||||
| Manly | 24.5% (vs. GRN) | HOLD | ||||
| Wakehurst | 25.2% | HOLD | ||||
| Pittwater | 25.7% (vs. GRN) | HOLD | ||||
| Northern Tablelands | 27.1% | HOLD | ||||
| Davidson | 28.8% (vs. GRN) | HOLD | ||||
| Castle Hill | 29.4% | HOLD | ||||
Notes:
(note: not ALL by-elections are listed here. Only ones that either
changed control of the seat or made the seat dramatically more safe or
less safe are listed)
(a) Wollondilly saw its incumbent MP resign in December 2018, leaving the seat vacant. Due to the proxmity to the state election, a by-election was not called. It is considered part of the Coalition's tally for this prediction.
(b) A by-election occured in the seat of Gosford, in which the ALP improved to 12.5%. The original margin is listed.
(c) A by-election occured in the seat of North Shore, in which the Coaltion saw it's margin narrowed to ~9%. The original margin is listed.
(d) A by-election occurred in the seat of Murray, in which the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) managed to cut the Coalition's margin to 3.3%. The original 2015 election figure is listed.
(e) A by-election occured in the seat of Orange, in which the SFF GAINED the seat off of the Coaltion. The By-election result is listed.
(f) A by-election occured in the seat of Wagga Wagga, in which an independent GAINED the seat off of the Coalition. The by-election result is listed.
(a) Wollondilly saw its incumbent MP resign in December 2018, leaving the seat vacant. Due to the proxmity to the state election, a by-election was not called. It is considered part of the Coalition's tally for this prediction.
(b) A by-election occured in the seat of Gosford, in which the ALP improved to 12.5%. The original margin is listed.
(c) A by-election occured in the seat of North Shore, in which the Coaltion saw it's margin narrowed to ~9%. The original margin is listed.
(d) A by-election occurred in the seat of Murray, in which the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) managed to cut the Coalition's margin to 3.3%. The original 2015 election figure is listed.
(e) A by-election occured in the seat of Orange, in which the SFF GAINED the seat off of the Coaltion. The By-election result is listed.
(f) A by-election occured in the seat of Wagga Wagga, in which an independent GAINED the seat off of the Coalition. The by-election result is listed.
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Image of the New South Wales Flag is a "public domain creation", details here.
